Sunday, September 27, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New Orleans Saints primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is NO by 2.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New Orleans Saints (2 edges vs 1 for Green Bay Packers).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NO by about 0.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors GB by about 0.6 points of margin.
Form is a large contribution and supports NO by about 0.4 points of margin. Points scored per game: NO 30.4, GB 28.7.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 52.0 (Matchbook)
Green Bay Packers 37, New Orleans Saints 30 — Green Bay Packers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.