Sunday, September 20, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Dallas Cowboys primarily because of advantages in Market blend. The projected margin is DAL by 0.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market blend. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Atlanta Falcons (2 edges vs 1 for Dallas Cowboys).
The model leans Dallas Cowboys even though the simple edge count favors Atlanta Falcons. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Form pulls the other way and favors ATL by about 0.6 points of margin.
Context pulls the other way and favors ATL by about 0.6 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports DAL by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+3.0 points).
Dallas Cowboys -3.0 (Pinnacle) | O/U 53.5 (LowVig.ag)
Atlanta Falcons 39, Dallas Cowboys 40 — Dallas Cowboys win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.