Thursday, September 17, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Cleveland Browns primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is CLE by 3.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Bengals (2 edges vs 1 for Cleveland Browns).
The model leans Cleveland Browns even though the simple edge count favors Cincinnati Bengals. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports CLE by about 2.6 points of margin. The market spread feature is -6.0.
Form pulls the other way and favors CIN by about 0.9 points of margin. Points scored per game: CLE 19.1, CIN 19.4.
Context pulls the other way and favors CIN by about 0.8 points of margin.
Cleveland Browns -6.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 44.5 (Matchbook)
Cincinnati Bengals 30, Cleveland Browns 35 — Cleveland Browns win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.