Sunday, September 13, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Atlanta Falcons primarily because of advantages in Rest and Form. The projected margin is ATL by 3.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by rest and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Atlanta Falcons (2 edges vs 1 for Seattle Seahawks).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Rest is a large contribution and supports ATL by about 1.5 points of margin. Days of rest: ATL 258, SEA 7.
Context pulls the other way and favors SEA by about 0.8 points of margin.
Form is a large contribution and supports ATL by about 0.6 points of margin. Points scored per game: ATL 25.9, SEA 22.6.
Atlanta Falcons -1.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 49.5 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Seahawks 38, Atlanta Falcons 25 — Seattle Seahawks win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.