Sunday, September 13, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Buffalo Bills primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is BUF by 3.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Rest and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Jets (2 edges vs 1 for Buffalo Bills).
The model leans Buffalo Bills even though the simple edge count favors New York Jets. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports BUF by about 2.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is -6.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors NYJ by about 1.3 points of margin. Days of rest: BUF 7, NYJ 258.
Context pulls the other way and favors NYJ by about 0.6 points of margin.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 39.5 (Matchbook)
New York Jets 17, Buffalo Bills 27 — Buffalo Bills win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.