Sunday, September 13, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans San Francisco 49ers primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is SF by 2.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Rest pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned San Francisco 49ers (2 edges vs 1 for Arizona Cardinals).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports SF by about 2.3 points of margin. The market spread feature is -6.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors ARI by about 1.8 points of margin. Days of rest: SF 7, ARI 258.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports SF by about 0.8 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+6.5 points).
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 48.0 (LowVig.ag)
Arizona Cardinals 24, San Francisco 49ers 20 — Arizona Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.