Sunday, September 13, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New Orleans Saints primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is NO by 1.3 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Rest and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 edges vs 1 for New Orleans Saints).
The model leans New Orleans Saints even though the simple edge count favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Rest pulls the other way and favors TB by about 1.3 points of margin. Days of rest: NO 7, TB 259.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NO by about 1.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is -4.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors TB by about 0.7 points of margin.
New Orleans Saints -4.0 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 48.0 (LowVig.ag)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, New Orleans Saints 34 — New Orleans Saints win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.