New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

October 5, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (12 edges vs 11 for New York Yankees).

Note: the model leans New York Yankees even though the simple edge count favors Tampa Bay Rays. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.650 vs New York Yankees 0.600 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 1.85 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.75 vs New York Yankees 4.80 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 2.90 vs New York Yankees 3.80 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.667 vs New York Yankees 0.333 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 1.193 vs New York Yankees 0.556 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 4.49 vs New York Yankees 4.45 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 3.96 vs New York Yankees 3.62 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.889 vs New York Yankees 0.429 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 3.21 vs New York Yankees 1.47 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 1.25 vs New York Yankees 1.08 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 9 vs New York Yankees 9.10 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays -0.30 vs New York Yankees 2.46 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.04 vs New York Yankees 4.19 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.80 vs New York Yankees 1.29 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.56 vs New York Yankees 5.69 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 vs New York Yankees 0.404 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.357 vs New York Yankees 0.624 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.416 vs New York Yankees 0.381 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.504 vs New York Yankees 0.508 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0.776 vs New York Yankees 1.067 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.031 vs New York Yankees -0.037 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.417 vs New York Yankees 0.583 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays -1 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 6.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 2, Tampa Bay Rays 5 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.