Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

September 29, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (14 edges vs 10 for Boston Red Sox).

Note: the model leans Boston Red Sox even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Yankees 0.600 vs Boston Red Sox 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1 vs Boston Red Sox -0.05 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.80 vs Boston Red Sox 2.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.80 vs Boston Red Sox 2.80 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 0.333 vs Boston Red Sox 0.667 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 0.556 vs Boston Red Sox 0.970 — leans Boston Red Sox

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.45 vs Boston Red Sox 4.18 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.62 vs Boston Red Sox 3.70 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.692 vs Boston Red Sox 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.7 vs Boston Red Sox 92.6 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Boston Red Sox

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Yankees 1.47 vs Boston Red Sox 2.29 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.08 vs Boston Red Sox 0.81 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 9.10 vs Boston Red Sox 11.44 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 2.46 vs Boston Red Sox 3.96 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.19 vs Boston Red Sox 3.18 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 1.29 vs Boston Red Sox 1.18 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 5.69 vs Boston Red Sox 4.81 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 0 vs Boston Red Sox 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs Boston Red Sox 0.368 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs Boston Red Sox 0.419 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.424 vs Boston Red Sox 0.384 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.559 vs Boston Red Sox 0.396 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.385 vs Boston Red Sox 0.392 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.516 vs Boston Red Sox 0.483 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.684 vs Boston Red Sox 0.696 — roughly even
New York Yankees -0.034 vs Boston Red Sox 0.024 — leans Boston Red Sox

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.417 vs Boston Red Sox 0.583 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees 0.83 vs Boston Red Sox -0.83 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 6.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Boston Red Sox 0, New York Yankees 9 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.