← All picks for September 26, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
September 26, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (21 edges vs 3 for Philadelphia Phillies).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.700 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies -0.70 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.70 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.70 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.65 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.95 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.180 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.573 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Season to date — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.38 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.45 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.24 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.96 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.364 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.545 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.88 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.38 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.58 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 8.31 vs Tampa Bay Rays 10.12 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies -2.97 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.02 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.04 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.40 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.80 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.97 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.56 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.357 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.376 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.413 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.486 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.505 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.661 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.782 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.039 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.028 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies -2 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Betting Lines
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | O/U 6.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Tampa Bay Rays 12, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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