Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

September 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Baltimore Orioles

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (20 edges vs 6 for Baltimore Orioles).

Note: the model leans Baltimore Orioles even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.650 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.450 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.55 vs Baltimore Orioles -0.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.05 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.50 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.667 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.056 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.762 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.48 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.33 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.61 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.48 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.800 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.7 vs Baltimore Orioles 97.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Baltimore Orioles

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Baltimore Orioles.

New York Yankees 9.45 vs Baltimore Orioles 6.17 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 1.80 vs Baltimore Orioles 1.59 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 5.40 vs Baltimore Orioles 8.49 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 0 vs Baltimore Orioles -7.63 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 4.19 vs Baltimore Orioles 6.48 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.29 vs Baltimore Orioles 1.72 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.69 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.06 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 0 vs Baltimore Orioles 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.359 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.454 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.424 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.366 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.559 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.419 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.387 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.350 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.525 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.459 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.922 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.429 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.031 vs Baltimore Orioles -0.009 — leans Baltimore Orioles

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.800 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.200 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.40 vs Baltimore Orioles -3.40 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 6.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Baltimore Orioles 10, New York Yankees 2 — Baltimore Orioles win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.