Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

September 17, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 10 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Philadelphia Phillies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -0.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.55 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 5.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.462 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.250 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 4.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 4.44 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.273 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.615 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 87.0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.88 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.97 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.58 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 12.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 8.31 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.09 vs Philadelphia Phillies -2.97 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 2.01 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.26 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.94 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.37 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.79 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.384 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.338 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.439 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.389 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.389 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.494 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.507 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.824 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.916 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.074 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.053 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.444 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.556 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 3, New York Mets 0 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.