New York Mets vs New York Yankees

September 12, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (16 edges vs 5 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.650 vs New York Mets 0.550 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.95 vs New York Mets 0.10 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.40 vs New York Mets 5.20 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.45 vs New York Mets 5.10 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.358 vs New York Mets 1.667 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.46 vs New York Mets 4.18 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.58 vs New York Mets 4.46 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.714 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.7 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Yankees 4.25 vs New York Mets 4.25 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.28 vs New York Mets 1.28 — roughly even
New York Yankees 8.60 vs New York Mets 8.60 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
New York Yankees 5.40 vs New York Mets 2.11 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 1.47 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 6.70 vs New York Mets 3.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.424 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.559 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.387 vs New York Mets 0.382 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.512 vs New York Mets 0.485 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.702 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.031 vs New York Mets 0.066 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.25 vs New York Mets -0.25 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 12, New York Yankees 2 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.