← All picks for September 11, 2026
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays
September 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (11 edges vs 8 for Houston Astros).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.550 vs Houston Astros 0.550 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.35 vs Houston Astros -0.45 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.20 vs Houston Astros 4.10 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.85 vs Houston Astros 4.55 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.667 vs Houston Astros 0.667 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.190 vs Houston Astros 1.220 — roughly even
Season to date — leans Houston Astros
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.47 vs Houston Astros 4.47 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.09 vs Houston Astros 4.74 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.571 vs Houston Astros 0.667 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 vs Houston Astros 107.6 — leans Houston Astros
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Tampa Bay Rays 2.81 vs Houston Astros 3.86 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.86 vs Houston Astros 0.86 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 10.52 vs Houston Astros 12.86 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays -3.17 vs Houston Astros 0 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.09 vs Houston Astros 1.11 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.86 vs Houston Astros 0.99 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.23 vs Houston Astros 3.55 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs Houston Astros 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 vs Houston Astros 0.388 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 vs Houston Astros 0.499 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 vs Houston Astros 0.391 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.357 vs Houston Astros 0.503 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.411 vs Houston Astros 0.376 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.504 vs Houston Astros 0.483 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.788 vs Houston Astros 0.255 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.026 vs Houston Astros -0.012 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Series & head-to-head — leans Houston Astros
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 vs Houston Astros 0.667 — leans Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays -0.67 vs Houston Astros 0.67 — leans Houston Astros
Betting Lines
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Houston Astros 1, Tampa Bay Rays 3 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.