← All picks for September 9, 2026
Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies
September 9, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Astros (14 edges vs 7 for Philadelphia Phillies).
Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors Houston Astros. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.700 vs Houston Astros 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.25 vs Houston Astros -0.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 vs Houston Astros 3.85 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.20 vs Houston Astros 4.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs Houston Astros 0.333 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.749 vs Houston Astros 0.952 — leans Houston Astros
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.43 vs Houston Astros 4.47 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 vs Houston Astros 4.73 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.727 vs Houston Astros 0.714 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs Houston Astros 107.6 — leans Houston Astros
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Houston Astros
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.72 vs Houston Astros 2.86 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.72 vs Houston Astros 1.09 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 10.24 vs Houston Astros 10.48 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.24 vs Houston Astros -0.94 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.26 vs Houston Astros 1.11 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.37 vs Houston Astros 0.99 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 vs Houston Astros 3.55 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Houston Astros 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Houston Astros
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs Houston Astros 0.388 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs Houston Astros 0.499 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs Houston Astros 0.426 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs Houston Astros 0.524 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.389 vs Houston Astros 0.388 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.504 vs Houston Astros 0.519 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.824 vs Houston Astros 0.927 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.052 vs Houston Astros -0.000 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — leans Houston Astros
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Houston Astros 1 — leans Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies -1 vs Houston Astros 1 — leans Houston Astros
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Houston Astros 7, Philadelphia Phillies 11 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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