San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets

September 5, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Francisco Giants

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (18 edges vs 6 for San Francisco Giants).

Note: the model leans San Francisco Giants even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.550 vs San Francisco Giants 0.400 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.10 vs San Francisco Giants -0.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4 vs San Francisco Giants 4.85 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 4.10 vs San Francisco Giants 5.35 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs San Francisco Giants 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.833 vs San Francisco Giants 0.893 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.05 vs San Francisco Giants 4.13 — roughly even
New York Mets 4.37 vs San Francisco Giants 4.63 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.615 vs San Francisco Giants 0.273 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs San Francisco Giants 87.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.25 vs San Francisco Giants 3.09 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 1.28 vs San Francisco Giants 1.11 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 8.60 vs San Francisco Giants 3.86 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs San Francisco Giants 0.58 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.11 vs San Francisco Giants 3.38 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.94 vs San Francisco Giants 1.64 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.05 vs San Francisco Giants 2.58 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 0 vs San Francisco Giants 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.315 vs San Francisco Giants 0.327 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 0.384 vs San Francisco Giants 0.418 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Mets 0.338 vs San Francisco Giants 0.280 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.439 vs San Francisco Giants 0.322 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.384 vs San Francisco Giants 0.338 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.489 vs San Francisco Giants 0.474 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.812 vs San Francisco Giants 0.655 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.069 vs San Francisco Giants 0.011 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.800 vs San Francisco Giants 0.200 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.60 vs San Francisco Giants -3.60 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

San Francisco Giants 9, New York Mets 5 — San Francisco Giants win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.