St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

September 5, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (12 edges vs 10 for Colorado Rockies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Colorado Rockies 0.300 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies -1.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.20 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 4.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.55 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 5.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.75 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 1.270 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.021 — leans Colorado Rockies

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Colorado Rockies 4.62 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.38 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 5.61 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 0.200 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 98.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Colorado Rockies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 4.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.76 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 1.28 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.64 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 8.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.84 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.26 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 3.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 1.44 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 3.82 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Colorado Rockies 0.390 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 0.484 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 0.409 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 0.542 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.563 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies 0.379 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.375 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 0.503 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.487 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 0.782 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -0.012 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.018 — leans Colorado Rockies

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Colorado Rockies 0.250 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.750 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies -0.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.75 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | O/U 11.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 7, Colorado Rockies 10 — Colorado Rockies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.