New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres

September 4, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (15 edges vs 8 for San Diego Padres).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

San Diego Padres 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.600 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.95 vs New York Yankees 1.25 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 4.35 vs New York Yankees 4.55 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 3.40 vs New York Yankees 3.30 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.333 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.843 vs New York Yankees 1.026 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

San Diego Padres 4.24 vs New York Yankees 4.42 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 4.17 vs New York Yankees 3.62 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.750 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 94.5 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Diego Padres

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres 5.14 vs New York Yankees 3.03 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 1.52 vs New York Yankees 0.98 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 9 vs New York Yankees 7.99 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -0.86 vs New York Yankees 3.55 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 2.56 vs New York Yankees 5.40 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.95 vs New York Yankees 1.47 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 2.44 vs New York Yankees 6.70 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

San Diego Padres 0.374 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.473 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.459 vs New York Yankees 0.404 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.590 vs New York Yankees 0.624 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.380 vs New York Yankees 0.381 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.476 vs New York Yankees 0.509 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.957 vs New York Yankees 1.078 — leans New York Yankees
San Diego Padres 0.006 vs New York Yankees -0.037 — leans San Diego Padres

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Yankees and San Diego Padres does not clearly favor either side.

San Diego Padres 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 2, San Diego Padres 3 — San Diego Padres win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.