New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays

September 1, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (12 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.550 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0.35 vs New York Mets 0.05 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.95 vs New York Mets 3.85 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.60 vs New York Mets 3.80 — leans New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.667 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0.943 vs New York Mets 1.039 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 4.45 vs New York Mets 3.98 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.06 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.455 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Tampa Bay Rays 3.21 vs New York Mets 2.91 — leans New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays 1.25 vs New York Mets 0.92 — leans New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays 9 vs New York Mets 9.14 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays -0.30 vs New York Mets 0.38 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.09 vs New York Mets 2.11 — leans New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays 0.86 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.23 vs New York Mets 3.05 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.396 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.491 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.396 vs New York Mets 0.389 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.493 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0.957 vs New York Mets 0.824 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.011 vs New York Mets 0.073 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays -1 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 2, Tampa Bay Rays 6 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.