St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

August 23, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (13 edges vs 10 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.750 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 2.10 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 5.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.15 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 3.70 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.15 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.322 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.230 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.53 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.34 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.750 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 3.72 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.74 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.72 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.58 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 10.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 8.03 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -1.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 7.56 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 1.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 6.22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.346 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.376 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.389 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.494 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.498 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.696 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.904 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.039 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.004 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (DraftKings)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 4, Philadelphia Phillies 6 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.