← All picks for August 21, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
August 21, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (15 edges vs 7 for Philadelphia Phillies).
Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.80 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.60 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.997 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.181 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.33 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.23 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.700 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.43 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.24 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 10.61 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.14 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 6.06 vs St. Louis Cardinals -4.95 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 7.56 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 6.22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.346 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.390 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.385 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.519 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.508 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.800 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.927 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.053 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.009 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies -2.33 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.33 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 6, Philadelphia Phillies 7 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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