Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

August 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (12 edges vs 8 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.450 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals -0.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.70 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 3.70 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 1.622 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.176 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.23 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.41 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.429 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.72 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 1.33 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.72 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 7.86 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.24 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 2.04 vs Philadelphia Phillies -1.24 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.26 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.37 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.346 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.390 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.503 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.518 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.904 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.800 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.000 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.053 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals -1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 0, St. Louis Cardinals 2 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.