Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

August 10, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (12 edges vs 9 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals -0.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 3.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.85 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 4.15 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.502 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.100 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.22 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 4.29 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.364 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.08 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.73 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.14 vs Philadelphia Phillies 7.61 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals -4.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies -2.98 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.26 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.37 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.563 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.366 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.391 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 0.447 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.520 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 0.661 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.957 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals -0.027 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.054 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 6, St. Louis Cardinals 5 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.