New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians

August 6, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (14 edges vs 9 for Cleveland Guardians).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cleveland Guardians 0.300 vs New York Mets 0.450 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians -0.95 vs New York Mets 0.55 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 3.40 vs New York Mets 3.65 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 4.35 vs New York Mets 3.10 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 1.176 vs New York Mets 1.096 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Cleveland Guardians

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians 3.81 vs New York Mets 3.94 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 3.98 vs New York Mets 4.39 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.308 vs New York Mets 0.625 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 96.5 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Cleveland Guardians

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cleveland Guardians 2.12 vs New York Mets 3.10 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 1.01 vs New York Mets 0.97 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 6.67 vs New York Mets 12.10 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 1.45 vs New York Mets -2.09 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 6 vs New York Mets 2.01 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 1.61 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 5.10 vs New York Mets 2.79 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians 9.7 vs New York Mets 13.3 — leans Cleveland Guardians

Offense & matchup — leans Cleveland Guardians

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians 0.379 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.461 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.342 vs New York Mets 0.312 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.396 vs New York Mets 0.371 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.367 vs New York Mets 0.372 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 0.465 vs New York Mets 0.455 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 1.200 vs New York Mets 1.061 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians -0.012 vs New York Mets 0.056 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cleveland Guardians 0 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
Cleveland Guardians -2.50 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 13, Cleveland Guardians 6 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.