St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees

August 5, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (17 edges vs 5 for St. Louis Cardinals).

Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.300 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.95 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees 3.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.243 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.714 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.42 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.20 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.71 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.31 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.364 — roughly even
New York Yankees 108.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 2.28 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.33 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 12.04 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.86 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.04 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 — roughly even
New York Yankees 5.49 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.18 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees 8.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 8 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.404 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees 0.624 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.563 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.376 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.348 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.516 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.440 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.945 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.782 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.042 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.046 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees -2 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 3, New York Yankees 1 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.