← All picks for August 4, 2026
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians
August 4, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Cleveland Guardians
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cleveland Guardians (12 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cleveland Guardians
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cleveland Guardians.
- Cleveland Guardians 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians -0.40 vs New York Mets -0.10 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 3.50 vs New York Mets 3.15 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 3.90 vs New York Mets 3.25 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 0.333 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 1.333 vs New York Mets 0.423 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Season to date — leans Cleveland Guardians
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cleveland Guardians.
- Cleveland Guardians 3.81 vs New York Mets 3.91 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians 3.95 vs New York Mets 4.40 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 0.364 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 96.5 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Cleveland Guardians 3.91 vs New York Mets 2.91 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 1.38 vs New York Mets 0.92 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 8.88 vs New York Mets 9.14 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians -3.15 vs New York Mets 0.38 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 6 vs New York Mets 2.01 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 1.61 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 5.10 vs New York Mets 2.79 — leans New York Mets
- Cleveland Guardians 14.7 vs New York Mets 19.3 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Offense & matchup — leans Cleveland Guardians
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cleveland Guardians.
- Cleveland Guardians 0.379 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 0.461 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 0.418 vs New York Mets 0.312 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 0.533 vs New York Mets 0.371 — leans Cleveland Guardians
- Cleveland Guardians 0.377 vs New York Mets 0.375 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians 0.459 vs New York Mets 0.460 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians 0.771 vs New York Mets 0.794 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians -0.002 vs New York Mets 0.060 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians does not clearly favor either side.
- Cleveland Guardians 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Cleveland Guardians 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
Betting Lines
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (DraftKings)
Final Score
New York Mets 6, Cleveland Guardians 2 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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