New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies

July 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (21 edges vs 2 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.450 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -0.90 vs New York Yankees -0.10 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 4 vs New York Yankees 3.30 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.90 vs New York Yankees 3.40 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.606 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.27 vs New York Yankees 4.50 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 4.42 vs New York Yankees 3.66 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.364 vs New York Yankees 0.750 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 vs New York Yankees 2.64 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 1.50 vs New York Yankees 1.01 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 9 vs New York Yankees 9.98 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 12 vs New York Yankees 3.33 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 8.35 vs New York Yankees 0.93 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 2.02 vs New York Yankees 1.24 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 5.99 vs New York Yankees 4.34 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 vs New York Yankees 0.424 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 vs New York Yankees 0.559 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies 0.375 vs New York Yankees 0.378 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.504 vs New York Yankees 0.504 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.551 vs New York Yankees 0.527 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.038 vs New York Yankees -0.040 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies -1 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 3, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.