← All picks for July 25, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
July 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (12 edges vs 9 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors Chicago Cubs. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.650 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.50 vs Chicago Cubs 1.35 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.95 vs Chicago Cubs 5.70 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.45 vs Chicago Cubs 4.35 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 vs Chicago Cubs 0.667 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.471 vs Chicago Cubs 0.877 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 5.09 vs Chicago Cubs 4.93 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.63 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.750 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 101.3 vs Chicago Cubs 108.0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.91 vs Chicago Cubs 1.72 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.64 vs Chicago Cubs 0.73 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 10.48 vs Chicago Cubs 9.19 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates -0.69 vs Chicago Cubs -1.27 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.35 vs Chicago Cubs 6.93 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.35 vs Chicago Cubs 1.46 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 5.23 vs Chicago Cubs 5.05 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.405 vs Chicago Cubs 0.441 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.476 vs Chicago Cubs 0.571 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.342 vs Chicago Cubs 0.412 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.447 vs Chicago Cubs 0.569 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.406 vs Chicago Cubs 0.406 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.502 vs Chicago Cubs 0.494 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.951 vs Chicago Cubs 0.557 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.001 vs Chicago Cubs -0.034 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Series & head-to-head — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.25 vs Chicago Cubs -0.25 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Betting Lines
Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Fanatics)
Final Score
Chicago Cubs 11, Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.