Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees

July 21, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (15 edges vs 10 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

New York Yankees 0.400 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.550 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees -0.85 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.40 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 3.55 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.90 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 4.40 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.50 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.127 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.847 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.61 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.22 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 3.76 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.73 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.273 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 108.7 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 101.3 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 3.03 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.84 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.98 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 7.99 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7.66 — roughly even
New York Yankees 3.55 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -2.14 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 0.93 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.24 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.34 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.23 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.405 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.476 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.404 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.342 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.624 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.447 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.386 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.436 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 0.510 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.563 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees 0.824 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.945 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees -0.032 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.032 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -3 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (Kalshi)

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.