Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies

July 21, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Dodgers (20 edges vs 4 for Philadelphia Phillies).

Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors Los Angeles Dodgers. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.550 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -0.70 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.70 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 4.85 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.30 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.365 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 1.067 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.33 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.14 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 4.43 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.65 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.600 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 108.6 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies 3.33 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.56 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 1.19 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.97 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 12.33 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.66 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 2.05 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 1.64 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 9.74 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.20 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 2.31 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 1.27 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 6.40 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.25 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.401 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.467 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.400 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.335 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.375 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.433 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.516 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.547 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.673 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.800 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies 0.038 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.033 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 0.500 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -1.50 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 1.50 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (Kalshi)

Final Score

Los Angeles Dodgers 2, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — Los Angeles Dodgers win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.