← All picks for July 19, 2026
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
July 19, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (16 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies -0.30 vs New York Mets -1.30 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.35 vs New York Mets 4.15 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.65 vs New York Mets 5.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.920 vs New York Mets 0.562 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.31 vs New York Mets 3.95 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.39 vs New York Mets 4.61 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.444 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.19 vs New York Mets 3.10 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.40 vs New York Mets 0.97 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 10.24 vs New York Mets 12.10 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies -3.56 vs New York Mets -2.09 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 8.35 vs New York Mets 9.21 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.02 vs New York Mets 2.08 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.99 vs New York Mets 5.75 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 3 vs New York Mets 3.3 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.371 vs New York Mets 0.382 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.477 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.788 vs New York Mets 0.824 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.035 vs New York Mets 0.066 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.625 vs New York Mets 0.375 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.75 vs New York Mets -1.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 6, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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