← All picks for July 18, 2026
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
July 18, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (17 edges vs 8 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies -0.30 vs New York Mets -1.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.75 vs New York Mets 4.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.05 vs New York Mets 5.65 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.702 vs New York Mets 0.471 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.29 vs New York Mets 3.98 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.42 vs New York Mets 4.59 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.14 vs New York Mets 2.91 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.43 vs New York Mets 0.92 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 10.61 vs New York Mets 9.14 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 6.06 vs New York Mets 0.38 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 9.74 vs New York Mets 11.57 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.31 vs New York Mets 2.39 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 6.40 vs New York Mets 6.99 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 vs New York Mets 0.312 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 vs New York Mets 0.371 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.378 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.517 vs New York Mets 0.497 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.800 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.039 vs New York Mets 0.063 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.571 vs New York Mets 0.429 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.29 vs New York Mets -1.29 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (Kalshi)
Final Score
New York Mets 1, Philadelphia Phillies 6 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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