← All picks for July 16, 2026
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
July 16, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (21 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.300 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies -0.30 vs New York Mets -1.70 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.75 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.05 vs New York Mets 6.05 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.772 vs New York Mets 0.307 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.33 vs New York Mets 3.98 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.43 vs New York Mets 4.63 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.429 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.88 vs New York Mets 4.26 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.58 vs New York Mets 1.26 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 8.31 vs New York Mets 12.79 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies -2.97 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 9.74 vs New York Mets 11.57 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.31 vs New York Mets 2.39 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 6.40 vs New York Mets 6.99 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 4.7 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.371 vs New York Mets 0.357 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.452 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.788 vs New York Mets 0.794 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.035 vs New York Mets 0.042 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 4, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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