New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

July 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (18 edges vs 8 for Washington Nationals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Yankees and Washington Nationals, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Washington Nationals 0.450 vs New York Yankees 0.300 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals -0.20 vs New York Yankees -1.80 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 5.20 vs New York Yankees 3.35 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 5.40 vs New York Yankees 5.15 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.333 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.897 vs New York Yankees 1.692 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Washington Nationals 5.38 vs New York Yankees 4.72 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 5.26 vs New York Yankees 3.81 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.364 vs New York Yankees 0.417 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 96.4 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Washington Nationals 3.18 vs New York Yankees 1.47 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 1.06 vs New York Yankees 1.08 — roughly even
Washington Nationals 6.35 vs New York Yankees 9.10 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 9 vs New York Yankees 2.46 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 6.33 vs New York Yankees 0.86 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 1.59 vs New York Yankees 1.10 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 3.88 vs New York Yankees 3.91 — roughly even
Washington Nationals 15 vs New York Yankees 11.7 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Yankees and Washington Nationals.

Washington Nationals 0.345 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.404 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.270 vs New York Yankees 0.424 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.298 vs New York Yankees 0.559 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals 0.391 vs New York Yankees 0.368 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 0.526 vs New York Yankees 0.469 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 0.927 vs New York Yankees 0.533 — leans Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 0.046 vs New York Yankees -0.051 — leans Washington Nationals

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Washington Nationals 0 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees
Washington Nationals -2 vs New York Yankees 2 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 4, Washington Nationals 2 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.