Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

July 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Boston Red Sox (20 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Boston Red Sox

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 0.300 vs Boston Red Sox 0.750 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets -1.65 vs Boston Red Sox 1.75 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 4.35 vs Boston Red Sox 4.80 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 6 vs Boston Red Sox 3.05 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.667 vs Boston Red Sox 1 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 1.149 vs Boston Red Sox 0.903 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Boston Red Sox

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 4.04 vs Boston Red Sox 4.02 — roughly even
New York Mets 4.65 vs Boston Red Sox 3.79 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.250 vs Boston Red Sox 0.769 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 87.0 vs Boston Red Sox 92.6 — leans Boston Red Sox

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Boston Red Sox

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 3.21 vs Boston Red Sox 0 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 1.25 vs Boston Red Sox 0.30 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 9 vs Boston Red Sox 8.10 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.30 vs Boston Red Sox 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 11.85 vs Boston Red Sox 2.91 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 2.45 vs Boston Red Sox 1.06 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 7.49 vs Boston Red Sox 3.65 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 23.3 vs Boston Red Sox 14.3 — leans Boston Red Sox

Offense & matchup — leans Boston Red Sox

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Boston Red Sox 0.368 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.384 vs Boston Red Sox 0.419 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.312 vs Boston Red Sox 0.384 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.371 vs Boston Red Sox 0.396 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.382 vs Boston Red Sox 0.369 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.485 vs Boston Red Sox 0.471 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.637 vs Boston Red Sox 0.557 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.067 vs Boston Red Sox 0.001 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Boston Red Sox

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 0 vs Boston Red Sox 1 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets -4 vs Boston Red Sox 4 — leans Boston Red Sox

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Boston Red Sox 4, New York Mets 0 — Boston Red Sox win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.