Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

July 10, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Boston Red Sox (15 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Boston Red Sox

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 0.300 vs Boston Red Sox 0.700 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets -2.05 vs Boston Red Sox 1.50 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 4.40 vs Boston Red Sox 4.65 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 6.45 vs Boston Red Sox 3.15 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.667 vs Boston Red Sox 1 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 1.894 vs Boston Red Sox 1.075 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Boston Red Sox

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

New York Mets 4.06 vs Boston Red Sox 4 — roughly even
New York Mets 4.64 vs Boston Red Sox 3.81 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.273 vs Boston Red Sox 0.750 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 87.0 vs Boston Red Sox 92.6 — leans Boston Red Sox

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Boston Red Sox and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 3.10 vs Boston Red Sox 4.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.97 vs Boston Red Sox 1.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 12.10 vs Boston Red Sox 5.09 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.09 vs Boston Red Sox -0.22 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 11.85 vs Boston Red Sox 2.91 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 2.45 vs Boston Red Sox 1.06 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 7.49 vs Boston Red Sox 3.65 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 23.3 vs Boston Red Sox 15.7 — leans Boston Red Sox

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Boston Red Sox 0.368 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.384 vs Boston Red Sox 0.419 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.338 vs Boston Red Sox 0.384 — leans Boston Red Sox
New York Mets 0.439 vs Boston Red Sox 0.396 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.386 vs Boston Red Sox 0.373 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.462 vs Boston Red Sox 0.468 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.969 vs Boston Red Sox 0.667 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.071 vs Boston Red Sox 0.005 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Boston Red Sox and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Boston Red Sox 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Boston Red Sox 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Kalshi)

Final Score

Boston Red Sox 6, New York Mets 2 — Boston Red Sox win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.