New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

July 7, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (14 edges vs 12 for Tampa Bay Rays).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.550 vs New York Yankees 0.350 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 1.15 vs New York Yankees -1.25 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.45 vs New York Yankees 3.70 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.30 vs New York Yankees 4.95 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Yankees 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.674 vs New York Yankees 0.901 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 4.41 vs New York Yankees 4.70 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 4.07 vs New York Yankees 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.636 vs New York Yankees 0.375 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 3.60 vs New York Yankees 2.28 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 1.20 vs New York Yankees 1.05 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 10.80 vs New York Yankees 12.04 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays -6.75 vs New York Yankees 0.24 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.79 vs New York Yankees 2.08 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.84 vs New York Yankees 1.12 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4.42 vs New York Yankees 4.45 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 19 vs New York Yankees 21 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 vs New York Yankees 0.424 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.357 vs New York Yankees 0.559 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.408 vs New York Yankees 0.394 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.469 vs New York Yankees 0.515 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.782 vs New York Yankees 0.643 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.023 vs New York Yankees -0.025 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Series & head-to-head — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.571 vs New York Yankees 0.429 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

New York Yankees 4, Tampa Bay Rays 6 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.