New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

June 28, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (19 edges vs 4 for Boston Red Sox).

Note: the model leans Boston Red Sox even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Boston Red Sox 0.400 vs New York Yankees 0.550 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.40 vs New York Yankees 0.55 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 3.75 vs New York Yankees 4.35 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 3.35 vs New York Yankees 3.80 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 1 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 1.422 vs New York Yankees 0.383 — leans Boston Red Sox

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Boston Red Sox 3.89 vs New York Yankees 4.82 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 3.84 vs New York Yankees 3.61 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.556 vs New York Yankees 0.583 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 92.6 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Boston Red Sox 4.30 vs New York Yankees 2.61 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 1.30 vs New York Yankees 0.87 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 5.09 vs New York Yankees 7.55 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox -0.22 vs New York Yankees -0.84 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 3.38 vs New York Yankees 1.66 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 1.38 vs New York Yankees 1.15 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 3.66 vs New York Yankees 3.15 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 7.7 vs New York Yankees 8 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Boston Red Sox 0.368 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.419 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.374 vs New York Yankees 0.404 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.504 vs New York Yankees 0.624 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox 0.390 vs New York Yankees 0.384 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.505 vs New York Yankees 0.503 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.945 vs New York Yankees 0.963 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.023 vs New York Yankees -0.035 — leans Boston Red Sox

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Boston Red Sox 0.444 vs New York Yankees 0.556 — leans New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox -0.11 vs New York Yankees 0.11 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 4, Boston Red Sox 5 — Boston Red Sox win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.