Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

June 28, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 8 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.350 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -1.75 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.05 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 3.85 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.65 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 5.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.866 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.826 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 3.90 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.32 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 4.41 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.31 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.308 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.583 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 87.0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.14 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.43 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 7.88 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.61 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 1.74 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.06 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.96 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.35 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.15 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 12 vs Philadelphia Phillies 12.7 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.384 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.312 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.371 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.371 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.377 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.467 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.503 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.527 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.539 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.056 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.040 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.400 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -2.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 5, New York Mets 4 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.