← All picks for June 25, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
June 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (17 edges vs 4 for New York Mets).
Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Chicago Cubs. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- New York Mets 0.400 vs Chicago Cubs 0.550 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets -1.35 vs Chicago Cubs 0.95 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 4.05 vs Chicago Cubs 5.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 5.40 vs Chicago Cubs 4.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 1.152 vs Chicago Cubs 1.824 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- New York Mets 3.92 vs Chicago Cubs 4.76 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 4.47 vs Chicago Cubs 4.33 — roughly even
- New York Mets 0.300 vs Chicago Cubs 0.600 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 87.0 vs Chicago Cubs 108.0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- New York Mets 3.21 vs Chicago Cubs 6 — leans New York Mets
- New York Mets 1.25 vs Chicago Cubs 1.29 — roughly even
- New York Mets 9 vs Chicago Cubs 11.62 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets -0.30 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans New York Mets
- New York Mets 5.06 vs Chicago Cubs 4.97 — roughly even
- New York Mets 1.06 vs Chicago Cubs 1.48 — leans New York Mets
- New York Mets 5.16 vs Chicago Cubs 5.24 — roughly even
- New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- New York Mets 0.315 vs Chicago Cubs 0.441 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0.384 vs Chicago Cubs 0.571 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0.312 vs Chicago Cubs 0.412 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0.371 vs Chicago Cubs 0.569 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0.386 vs Chicago Cubs 0.402 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets 0.483 vs Chicago Cubs 0.478 — roughly even
- New York Mets 0.522 vs Chicago Cubs 0.557 — roughly even
- New York Mets 0.071 vs Chicago Cubs -0.038 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets -3.71 vs Chicago Cubs 3.71 — leans Chicago Cubs
Betting Lines
Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Chicago Cubs 4, New York Mets 3 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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