Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

June 23, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (13 edges vs 8 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.45 vs Chicago Cubs -0.10 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 4.10 vs Chicago Cubs 4.15 — roughly even
New York Mets 4.55 vs Chicago Cubs 4.25 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.407 vs Chicago Cubs 0.482 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Mets 3.89 vs Chicago Cubs 4.58 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 4.28 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.375 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs Chicago Cubs 108.0 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 9 vs Chicago Cubs 4.55 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 1.95 vs Chicago Cubs 1.52 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 10.35 vs Chicago Cubs 8.49 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -12.32 vs Chicago Cubs -1.10 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.08 vs Chicago Cubs 4.97 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.94 vs Chicago Cubs 1.48 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.50 vs Chicago Cubs 5.24 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Chicago Cubs 0.441 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.384 vs Chicago Cubs 0.571 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.338 vs Chicago Cubs 0.412 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.439 vs Chicago Cubs 0.569 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.383 vs Chicago Cubs 0.402 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.482 vs Chicago Cubs 0.481 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.812 vs Chicago Cubs 0.435 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.067 vs Chicago Cubs -0.038 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets -2.75 vs Chicago Cubs 2.75 — leans Chicago Cubs

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 9, New York Mets 6 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.