Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees

June 21, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (17 edges vs 6 for Cincinnati Reds).

Note: the model leans Cincinnati Reds even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.600 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.350 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.30 vs Cincinnati Reds -1.15 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.40 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.10 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.95 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.333 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.333 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.494 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.965 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.04 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.17 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.55 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.81 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.455 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.250 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.7 vs Cincinnati Reds 95.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 4.50 vs Cincinnati Reds 2.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees 2 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.07 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees 6.75 vs Cincinnati Reds 9 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.19 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.17 vs Cincinnati Reds 6.85 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.91 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.88 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.97 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.76 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.418 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.366 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.627 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.502 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.404 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.327 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.624 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.457 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.387 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.383 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.498 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.486 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.963 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.400 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.031 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.017 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — leans Cincinnati Reds

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees -1.50 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.50 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 4, New York Yankees 1 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.