← All picks for June 21, 2026
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
June 21, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.550 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.45 vs New York Mets 0.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 5 vs New York Mets 4.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.55 vs New York Mets 4.65 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.533 vs New York Mets 1.263 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.19 vs New York Mets 3.96 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.30 vs New York Mets 4.31 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.727 vs New York Mets 0.455 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.33 vs New York Mets 6.41 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.19 vs New York Mets 1.42 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 12.33 vs New York Mets 9.61 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.05 vs New York Mets -2.25 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.33 vs New York Mets 4.08 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.24 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.55 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — Mixed
The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.369 vs New York Mets 0.379 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.496 vs New York Mets 0.475 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.696 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.032 vs New York Mets 0.064 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 5 vs New York Mets -5 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 2, Philadelphia Phillies 6 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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