New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

June 18, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 vs New York Mets 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.15 vs New York Mets 0.45 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 vs New York Mets 4.60 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 vs New York Mets 4.15 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.439 vs New York Mets 0.870 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.05 vs New York Mets 3.95 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 4.29 vs New York Mets 4.17 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.778 vs New York Mets 0.444 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 5.88 vs New York Mets 2.91 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 1.58 vs New York Mets 0.92 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 8.31 vs New York Mets 9.14 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies -2.97 vs New York Mets 0.38 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 2.33 vs New York Mets 4.08 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.24 vs New York Mets 0.94 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 1.55 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.370 vs New York Mets 0.383 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.497 vs New York Mets 0.481 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.649 vs New York Mets 0.812 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.033 vs New York Mets 0.068 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies does not clearly favor either side.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 6, Philadelphia Phillies 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.