St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

June 9, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (16 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Mets 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.35 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.85 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.972 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.96 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.21 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 4.03 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.24 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.714 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.143 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 3.21 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.45 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 1.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.23 — roughly even
New York Mets 9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.52 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.17 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.48 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.82 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.34 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.25 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 22.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 16 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 0.315 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.384 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.338 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.439 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.563 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.381 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.390 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.471 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.482 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.696 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.782 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.066 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.004 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets -0.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 7, New York Mets 0 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.