Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

May 31, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Miami Marlins

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (14 edges vs 13 for Miami Marlins).

Note: the model leans Miami Marlins even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Miami Marlins 0.450 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.20 vs Miami Marlins -0.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.60 vs Miami Marlins 4.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.40 vs Miami Marlins 4.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Miami Marlins 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.377 vs Miami Marlins 0.698 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Miami Marlins and New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.82 vs Miami Marlins 4.22 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 4.18 vs Miami Marlins 4.56 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.727 vs Miami Marlins 0.273 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs Miami Marlins 98.1 — leans Miami Marlins

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.10 vs Miami Marlins 0 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.97 vs Miami Marlins 0.43 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 12.10 vs Miami Marlins 3.86 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.09 vs Miami Marlins 9 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.53 vs Miami Marlins 3.63 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.82 vs Miami Marlins 0.94 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.67 vs Miami Marlins 4.13 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 9.3 vs Miami Marlins 6.3 — leans Miami Marlins

Offense & matchup — leans Miami Marlins

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Miami Marlins 0.389 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.384 vs Miami Marlins 0.428 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.312 vs Miami Marlins 0.387 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.371 vs Miami Marlins 0.398 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.380 vs Miami Marlins 0.394 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.424 vs Miami Marlins 0.463 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets 0.504 vs Miami Marlins 0.435 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.064 vs Miami Marlins 0.005 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Miami Marlins

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.

New York Mets 0.400 vs Miami Marlins 0.600 — leans Miami Marlins
New York Mets -0.20 vs Miami Marlins 0.20 — leans Miami Marlins

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Miami Marlins 1, New York Mets 10 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.