Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

May 26, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Reds (16 edges vs 10 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.400 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.15 vs Cincinnati Reds -0.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.30 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.55 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 4.15 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.85 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.667 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.233 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.026 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.71 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.29 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 4.18 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.82 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.714 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.400 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs Cincinnati Reds 95.5 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 6.41 vs Cincinnati Reds 2.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 1.42 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.07 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 9.61 vs Cincinnati Reds 9 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.25 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.19 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.49 vs Cincinnati Reds 10.36 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.13 vs Cincinnati Reds 2.47 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.50 vs Cincinnati Reds 6.26 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.366 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.384 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.502 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.338 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.414 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.439 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.682 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.386 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.421 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.455 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.556 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.818 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.078 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.071 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.056 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Cincinnati Reds

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 1 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets -5 vs Cincinnati Reds 5 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 7, New York Mets 2 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.