Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

May 26, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (16 edges vs 6 for San Diego Padres).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0.550 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.30 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.15 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.404 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.549 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres 3.98 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.93 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 3.92 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.31 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.455 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.875 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 94.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

San Diego Padres 4.28 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.88 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 1.24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.58 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 8.23 vs Philadelphia Phillies 8.31 — roughly even
San Diego Padres -0.63 vs Philadelphia Phillies -2.97 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 4.57 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.09 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 1.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.59 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 4.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.33 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0.374 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.473 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.276 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.399 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.360 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.374 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.462 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.501 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.273 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.684 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres -0.014 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.038 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres -3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 4, San Diego Padres 3 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.