Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

May 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 11 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.350 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.50 vs Cincinnati Reds -0.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.40 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.40 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.90 vs Cincinnati Reds 5 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.333 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.152 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.606 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.75 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.24 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 4.13 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.87 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.833 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.300 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs Cincinnati Reds 95.5 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.10 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.03 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.97 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 12.10 vs Cincinnati Reds 10.48 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.09 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.49 vs Cincinnati Reds 10.36 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.13 vs Cincinnati Reds 2.47 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.50 vs Cincinnati Reds 6.26 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.366 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.384 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.502 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.312 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.327 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.371 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.457 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.354 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.424 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.432 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.593 — leans Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets 0.794 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.424 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.039 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.058 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Cincinnati Reds 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 7, New York Mets 2 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.