Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

May 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Diego Padres

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (11 edges vs 10 for San Diego Padres).

Note: the model leans San Diego Padres even though the simple edge count favors Philadelphia Phillies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0.600 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.40 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.25 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 1.048 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.300 — leans San Diego Padres

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres 4.06 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.94 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 3.94 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.39 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.545 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.875 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 94.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 5.64 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.14 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 1.48 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.43 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 8.06 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.61 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 2.90 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.06 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 4.57 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.09 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 1.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.59 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 4.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.33 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans San Diego Padres

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres 0.374 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.473 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.459 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.307 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.590 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.411 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.331 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.359 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.438 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.483 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 1.067 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.782 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -0.043 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.022 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres does not clearly favor either side.

San Diego Padres 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 3, San Diego Padres 0 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.